Economic Weekly June 12, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.
Schedule for Week of June 14, 2026
The key reports this coming week are May Housing Starts and Retail sales. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.
----- Monday, June 15th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 12.5, down from 19.6.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.2%.
10:00 AM: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 37, unchanged from 37 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
----- Tuesday, June 16th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.440 million SAAR in May, down from 1.465 million SAAR in April. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).
----- Wednesday, Wednesday, June 17th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in retail sales.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in this index.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected.
2:00 PM: FOMC Projections. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
----- Thursday, June 18th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 224 thousand from 229 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 12.0, up from -0.4.
----- Friday, June 19th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day
Review of Week of June 7, 2026
Real Estate Newsletter:
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.17 million SAAR in May
• The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2026
• June ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 1.0% in mid-May"
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May
Other economic data:
In general, data was worse than expected last week.
• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $85 per barrel as of this writing, down from the war peak, but up 32% from late February. The national average gasoline price is $4.06 per gallon, down from the recent peak of $4.56 per gallon, but up about 37% since late February.
• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for April
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.9 billion in April, down $0.7 billion from $56.6 billion in March, revised.
This was close to the consensus estimate. The following graph shows the trade deficit with and without petroleum. Note the huge surge in petroleum exports in March and April as the U.S. used SPR oil to ship to other countries.
• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 17 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
This remains historically weak.
• Consumer Price Index for May.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May … The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May. …
The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the year, following a 2.8-percent increase over the 12 months ending April.
The was at the consensus.
• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.
In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 225,000.
This was weaker than expected.
• The Producer Price Index for May.
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted ... the index for final demand increased 6.5 percent for the 12 months ended in May …
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.8 percent in May … For the 12 months ended in May, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 5.1 percent
This was much higher than expected.
Commentary: FOMC Preview
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. Market participants now expect the next FOMC move to be a rate hike, possibly in December or January.
Projections will be released at this meeting. For review, here are the March projections.
From BofA economists:
We expect the FOMC to keep the policy rate at 3.5-3.75% in June and remove the easing bias from its statement. We don’t anticipate any dissents. The SEP should show higher inflation, a lower u-rate and no cuts this year. A few policymakers will likely project hikes. We don’t think Warsh will submit forecasts. We expect him to lean dovish in the presser, arguing: i) supply shocks are one-offs, ii) the Fed should be forward looking on AI disinflation, iii) trimmed-mean PCE and wage inflation don’t look problematic.
Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
Real GDP increased 1.6% in Q1, and appears to be around 2.5% in Q2. The FOMC will likely leave this mostly unchanged.
The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in May. This is at the bottom of the projected range and will likely be unchanged.
As of April 2026, PCE inflation increased 3.8 percent year-over-year (YoY). This will likely increase further and it is likely this will be revised up in the projections.
PCE core inflation increased 3.3 percent YoY in April, and will likely be revised up.
Given the significant economic uncertainty, and rising inflation outlook, the FOMC will likely remain on hold for the next several meetings.