Economic Weekly April 3, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.
Schedule for Week of April 5, 2026
The key reports this coming week are March CPI, February PCE, and the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP.
----- Monday, April 6th -----
10:00 AM ET: the ISM Services Index for March.
----- Tuesday, April 7th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in orders.
----- Wednesday, Wednesday, April 8th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 17-18
----- Thursday, April 9th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 200 thousand from 202 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, February 2026. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.4%. Core PCE prices are expected to be up 3.0% YoY.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 4th Quarter and Year 2025. The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.7% annualized in Q4, unchanged from the second estimate.
----- Friday, April 10th -----
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.4% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.7% YoY.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for April).
Review of Week of March 29, 2026
Real Estate Newsletter:
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 0.9% year-over-year in January
• Freddie Mac House Price Index Decreased in February; Up only 0.4% Year-over-year
• FHFA’s Q4 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in February
• Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year
Other economic data:
In general economic data was somewhat better than expected.
• The March Employment Report
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
This was well above the consensus forecast of 50,000 jobs added. This data is noisy month-to-month, but over the last 15 months total employment has only increased by 321,000 jobs.
• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $111.54 per barrel as of this writing, up 66% since the war started. The national average gasoline prices is $4.09 per gallon, up 40% since late February.
• The ISM Manufacturing Index for March.
The Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.7 percent in March, a 0.3-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 52.4 percent in February. … The Employment Index registered 48.7 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from February’s figure of 48.7 percent/
This was above consensus expectations, however employment is still negative.
• Light vehicle sales for March. Sales were at 16.3 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 8.7% year-over-year. This was above the consensus forecast of 15.8 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales - the dashed line is the March sales rate.
• Heavy truck sales for March. Sales were at 0.34 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 25% year-over-year. Heavy truck sales have been very weak.
• The ADP Employment Report for March. “Private employers added 62,000 jobs in March”. This was above the consensus estimate of 42,000 jobs added.
• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The purchase index is up from the lows in 2023 and 2024, but at the lows for the housing bust. This has been weak recently.
• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.
In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 210,000 to 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average.
This was lower than consensus expectations.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $738.4 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 3.7 percent from February 2025.
This was above consensus forecast.
• Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February.
The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
This was close to expectations. Job openings were down 5% year-over-year.
• U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services for February.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $57.3 billion in February, up $2.7 billion from $54.7 billion in January, revised.
The close to the consensus forecast.
Commentary: The Coming Inflation “Surge”
A key economic story is the coming surge in inflation. This will start to show up this coming week in the CPI data.
Economists at BofA put out a research comment this week noting:
Headline PCE is now expected to surge imminently, peaking close to 4% this quarter. Headline inflation then falls quickly next year, as oil retraces. But we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast, because of i) higher food inflation in 2027 due to ongoing fertilizer supply disruptions, and ii) lasting global supply chain problems.
We have already seen a sharp increase in oil and gasoline prices (and possibly more to come). And the consensus forecast for March headline CPI is 0.9% month-over-month due to the surge in energy prices.
How long this “surge” in inflation lasts is a key unknown. BofA economists believe PCE inflation will peak this quarter, but remain elevated throughout 2027. That depends on when the war ends, and how quickly energy shipments return to pre-war levels.
There are more questions than answers right now. Will the surge in energy prices spillover into other prices? And will inflation expectations remain anchored?