Economic Weekly April 24, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.
Schedule for Week of April 26, 2026
The key reports this coming week are housing starts and Case-Shiller house prices. The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.
----- Monday, April 27th -----
10:00 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.
----- Tuesday, April 28th -----
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for February.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report. The consensus is for a 1.2% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for February unchanged from 1.2% in January.
10:00 AM: Housing Vacancies and Homeownership for First Quarter 2026
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April.
----- Wednesday, Wednesday, April 29th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for February and March. The consensus is for 1.400 million SAAR in March, down from 1.487 million SAAR in January. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
----- Thursday, April 30th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 215 thousand from 214 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2026. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.9% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 3.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 3.2% YoY.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q1.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April.
----- Friday, May 1st -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.2, up from 52.7 in March.
All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus is for an decrease in sales to 16.1 million SAAR from 16.3 million in March. This graph shows light vehicle sales - the dashed line is the March sales rate.
Review of Week of April 19, 2026
Real Estate Newsletter:
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales
• Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
• Architecture Billings Declined Slightly in March
• NMHC on Apartments: Market Tightness "mostly unchanged" in April Survey
Other economic data:
This was a light week for economic data, but, in general, data was better than expected.
• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $95 per barrel as of this writing, down from the peak of $117, but still up almost 50% since late February. The national average gasoline prices is $4.05 per gallon, up 35% since late February.
• Retail sales for March.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $752.1 billion, up 1.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2025.
This was above the consensus forecast for a 1.3% increase.
• Pending Home Sales Index for March.
Pending home sales in March increased by 1.5% from the prior month and declined 1.1% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report.
This was above the consensus estimate, but still down year-over-year.
• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
The purchase index is up from the lows in 2023 and 2024, but at the lows for the housing bust.
• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.
In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
This was close to consensus expectations.
Commentary: FOMC Preview
Most analysts expect no change to FOMC policy at the meeting this week, keeping the target range at 3-1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. Market participants now expect no further rate cuts this year, and for the FOMC to be on hold through most of 2027.
Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. For review, here are the March projections.
From BofA economists:
The Fed will remain firmly on hold at its April meeting. The inflation outlook is arguably as cloudy as it was at the time of the March meeting. Although equities are trading as though the Iran war is over, gas is still above $4 and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still highly disrupted. As a result, uncertainty about the impact of the conflict on core inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, the recent labor data show resilience and potentially some green shoots. This should reduce the sense of urgency to shore up the labor market among the doves.
There continues to be significant uncertainty about both the duration and economic impact of the war.
Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in March. This is at the bottom of the projected range.
As of February 2026, PCE inflation increased 2.8 percent year-over-year (YoY). This will increase over the next few months.
PCE core inflation increased 3.0 percent YoY in February.
Given the significant economic uncertainty, and rising inflation outlook, the FOMC will remain on hold at this meeting.