Economic Weekly April 17, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.
Schedule for Week of April 19, 2026
The key report this coming week is March Retail sales.
----- Monday, April 20th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.
----- Tuesday, April 21st -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in retail sales.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in this index.
----- Wednesday, Wednesday, April 22nd -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for February 2026
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
----- Thursday, April 23rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 213 thousand from 207 thousand last week.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.
----- Friday, April 24th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 48.5.
Review of Week of April 12, 2026
Real Estate Newsletter:
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.98 million SAAR in March
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026
• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2026
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March
Other economic data:
In general, economic data was better than expected - except housing data!
• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $83 per barrel as of this writing, down from the peak of $117, but still up 33% since late February. The national average gasoline prices is $4.05 per gallon, up 35% since late February.
• The Producer Price Index for March
U.S. import prices increased 0.8 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.9-percent rise in February.
This was high, but below consensus expectations.
• The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey
Business activity increased moderately in New York State in April, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose eleven points to 11.0.
This was above consensus expectations.
• The Philly Fed manufacturing survey
The current general business activity diffusion index rose to 26.7 in April from 18.1 in March.
This was well above consensus expectations.
• The March NAHB homebuilder survey
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 34 in April.
Here are the readings for the three HMI indices in April:
• Current sales conditions fell four points to 37.
• Sales expectations in the next six months dropped seven points to 42.
• Traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point decline to 22.
This was below consensus expectations and has been negative (below 50) for 30 of the last 32 months,
• The Federal Reserve Beige Book
Overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while two Districts reported little change and two Districts reported slight to modest declines. The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture.
• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index was unchanged compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The purchase index is up from the lows in 2023 and 2024, but at the lows for the housing bust. This was down year-over-year (NSA) recently.
• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.
In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
This was lower than consensus expectations.
• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production (IP) dropped 0.5 percent in March but still grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter. Similarly, manufacturing output ticked down 0.1 percent in March yet grew at a 3.0 percent rate in the first quarter. The indexes for mining and for utilities moved down 1.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively, in March. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average.
Both industrial production and capacity utilization were below expectations.
Commentary: Recession Watch Metrics
Although I think a recession is unlikely in 2026, there is significant economic and policy uncertainty in the U.S.. So I’m tracking several key recession metrics.
Housing: Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting.
This graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau. Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average of NSA data) are down 7% year-over-year. Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow. An exception for this data series was the mid ‘60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust.
The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates. There are no special circumstances now, and if this measure falls to off 20% a recession seems likely.
Yield Curve: The yield curve is a commonly used leading indicator. I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. Both times dismissing the yield curve was correct (the recession in 2020 was obviously due to the pandemic, so we will never know if the yield curve failed to predict a recession in 2019).
Here is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED since 1976.
The yield curve reverted to normal in September 2024 and is currently positive at 0.54. If this inverts, this might suggest a recession is coming.
Heavy Truck Sales: Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2026 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: “Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight.”
Heavy truck sales were at 342 thousand SAAR in March, down 25% from 458 thousand SAAR in March 2025. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.
Of these indicators, only heavy truck sales is suggesting a possible recession.