Economic Weekly April 10, 2026

This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a brief Commentary on a current topic.

Schedule for Week of April 12, 2026

The key report this coming week is March Existing Home sales.

----- Monday, April 13th -----

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.09 million SAAR, unchanged from 4.09 million in February. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

----- Tuesday, April 14th -----

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.5% increase in core PPI.

----- Wednesday, Wednesday, April 15th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0, up from -0.2.

10:00 AM: The March NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 37, down from 38. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, April 16th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to decrease to 215 thousand from 219 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 10.5, down from 18.1.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February. The consensus is a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 76.3%.

----- Friday, April 17th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

Review of Week of April 5, 2026

Real Estate Newsletter:

• Housing and Demographics

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below 2022 Peak

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

• April ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 0.4% in March"

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

Other economic data:

Almost all economic data was worse than expected.

• Oil and Gas prices. WTI oil prices are at $98.64 per barrel as of this writing, down from the peak of $117, but still up 50% since late February. The national average gasoline prices is $4.16 per gallon, up 43% since late February.

• The ISM Services Index for March.

In March, the Services PMI^® registered 54 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to February’s figure … The Employment Index contracted for the first time in four months with a reading of 45.2 percent, a 6.6-percentage point decrease from the 51.8 percent recorded in February.

This was below consensus expectations, and employment was especially weak.

• The Durable Goods Orders for February.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down four of the last five months, decreased $4.4 billion or 1.4 percent to $315.5 billion,

This was well consensus expectations of a 0.4%.

• The mortgage purchase applications index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The purchase index is up from the lows in 2023 and 2024, but at the lows for the housing bust. This was down year-over-year (NSA), and has been weak lately.

• The FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 17-18.

[A]lmost all participants supported maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting. With the policy rate having been lowered 75 basis points in the second half of last year, these participants generally viewed the policy rate as within a range of plausible estimates of its neutral level. They judged that leaving the policy rate unchanged kept the Committee well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

The FOMC minutes reinforce the view that the FOMC is on hold.

• The initial weekly unemployment claims report.

In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 16,000

from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000.

This was higher than consensus expectations.

• Personal Income and Outlays, February 2026.

Personal income decreased $18.2 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in February … and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $103.2 billion (0.5 percent). …

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for February increased 2.8 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 3.0 percent from one year ago.

Spending was at expectations, however income was below consensus expectations. Inflation was at exceptions, and this is prior to the surge in energy prices in March.

• Q4 Gross Domestic Product, (Third Estimate).

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025

This was below expectations.

• The Consumer Price Index for March.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March … The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in March.The all items index rose 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March, after rising 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending February. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.5-percent increase over the 12 months ending February.

This was slightly below consensus estimates, but still a significant surge in inflation. The key will be to watch the impact of higher energy prices on core inflation.

Commentary: An Update on Hotel Occupancy

Something I like to track is hotel occupancy. Last year was very difficult for hotels as international travel during the Summer months declined due to the policies and rhetoric of the current administration. There is some hope that occupancy will improve in 2026 with the World Cup being held in the U.S..

Hotel occupancy was weak last week, mostly due to the Easter holiday calendar shift.

From Costar: U.S. hotel results for week ending 4 April

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons because of the Easter holiday calendar shift, according to CoStar’s latest data through 4 April.. ...
29 March through 4 April 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2025):
• Occupancy: 60.6% (-5.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.21 (-0.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$97.02 (-5.1%)

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2026, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2025. Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. Occupancy is trailing behind the median for 2000-2025.

Note: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.